IPL 2027 Auction: Buying Chance Percentage for Top Indian Players
The IPL 2027 auction is still weeks away, but the most interesting question is already being asked: which players will actually be bought? This guide gives a percentage chance for each of the top Indian buys from the IPL 2026 auction, plus the reported release candidates, so fans know who is safe, who is at risk, and who could spark a bidding war.
One important note before the numbers. These percentages are editorial estimates, not official data or insider information. They are based on auction history, franchise behaviour, reported release news, team needs and the structure of the 2027 mini-auction. No franchise has announced its retention list yet, and the lists due on 15 November 2026 will change several of these numbers overnight. Treat every percentage as a reasoned judgement, not a guarantee.
How These Percentages Were Calculated
Each percentage answers one question: what is the chance this player is part of IPL 2027, either retained by his current team or bought by someone at the auction? That combined definition matters, because a player can be released and still be bought within minutes. A high percentage therefore means the player is almost certain to have an IPL contract next season, whether with his old team or a new one.
Five factors drive the numbers. First, record investments are rarely abandoned after one season: a franchise that pays Rs 14.20 crore for an uncapped youngster is buying two seasons of development, not one. Second, capped proven players are always in demand, because every team needs reliable Indian internationals. Third, team needs matter: a leg-spinner is worth more to a team without one, and a keeper-batter is worth less where the keeper slot is settled. Fourth, the auction structure limits opportunity: the 2027 event is a mini-auction, not a rebuild, with a reported purse of Rs 120 crore, a salary cap of Rs 157 crore including match fees and performance pay, squads of 18 to 25 players, a maximum of eight overseas players, and up to six retentions per team through direct retention or the Right to Match card. Fifth, reported release news: where credible reports already name a player as a likely release, his percentage reflects auction demand rather than retention safety.
The Near-Certainties: 82% to 93%
Ravi Bishnoi leads this group at 93%. The leg-spinner joined Rajasthan Royals for Rs 7.20 crore at the IPL 2026 auction after being released by Lucknow Super Giants, and proven capped Indian spinners simply do not go unsold. Even if RR were to release him, which there is no indication of, multiple teams would bid for a wicket-taking leg-spinner with years of IPL experience. His floor is high because his skill is scarce.
Venkatesh Iyer follows at 92%. The all-rounder joined Royal Challengers Bengaluru for Rs 7 crore at the 2026 auction and was part of their title-winning season. Capped Indian all-rounders who can bat in the top order and bowl useful overs are among the most wanted profiles in any auction, and Venkatesh has already proved he can win matches at this level. His percentage would only fall if injury intervened.
Prashant Veer and Kartik Sharma share 88% each. The two Chennai Super Kings record buys, Rs 14.20 crore each at the IPL 2026 auction, are the most interesting cases in this guide. Their percentages are high for a specific reason: franchises do not spend record money on uncapped teenagers and then discard them after one season. CSK’s investment was a two-season bet on development, and even in the unlikely event of a release, the same scouting reports that drove the original bidding wars would bring other franchises to the table. Their youth is their safety net.
Rahul Chahar sits at 85%. The experienced leg-spinner joined CSK for Rs 5.20 crore at the 2026 auction, and like Bishnoi, he offers a proven Indian spin option that every squad wants. Auqib Nabi Dar, the Jammu and Kashmir fast bowler Delhi Capitals bought for Rs 8.40 crore, is at 82%: Indian fast bowlers with pace and control are always in demand, and DC’s large investment suggests they see him as a longer-term asset rather than a one-season punt.
The Likely, Not Certain: 58% to 68%
This group will probably play IPL 2027, but their situations carry genuine doubt. Tejasvi Dahiya, the wicketkeeper KKR bought for Rs 3 crore, is at 68%. Young Indian keepers get opportunities, but keeper slots are among the most competitive in the league, and a team with a settled keeper has little reason to carry a second expensive one.
Mangesh Yadav is at 65%, and his case is openly flagged by RCB’s own decision matrix: reports around the franchise list his playing XI game time against reallocating his Rs 5.20 crore purse for a proven option. The 23-year-old pace all-rounder has youth on his side, and if released he would attract interest, but his percentage reflects a real retention question rather than a formality.
Mukul Choudhary and Akshat Raghuwanshi, both bought by Lucknow Super Giants for Rs 2.60 crore and Rs 2.20 crore, sit at 62% each. Both are young Indian talents in a franchise that has shown willingness to back youth, but both also face the reality of a mini-auction: with few slots available, teams prioritise proven players and specific gaps over developmental picks. Salil Arora and Naman Tiwari, at 58% each, face the same arithmetic from lower starting prices, which makes them more vulnerable to a squad squeeze even though their talent is not in question.
Reported Release Candidates and Their Re-Buy Chances
Some players enter this guide from the other direction: they are already reported as likely releases, so their percentage measures auction demand rather than retention safety. Gujarat Titans are reportedly set to release Shahrukh Khan and Glenn Phillips before the 2027 mini-auction, according to a PTI report, and both cases are instructive.
Shahrukh Khan is at 55%. His IPL 2026 numbers explain the release talk: 43 runs in nine matches at an average of 10.75 and a strike rate of 130.30, in a finisher’s role that is built to break statistics, since a finisher sometimes faces only a handful of balls. His price history shows the trend: Rs 9 crore at Punjab Kings in 2022, then Rs 7.4 crore at Gujarat Titans ahead of 2024. Yet his domestic hitting record keeps him in demand, and a team looking for a proven Indian finisher could still bid. His percentage is the lowest among established names because his role, not just his form, is under question.
Glenn Phillips is at 70%. The New Zealand all-rounder managed 67 runs in six matches in IPL 2026, which explains GT’s reported decision, but his value is broader than one season: he offers batting, part-time bowling and wicketkeeping cover, plus a proven T20 record around the world. Overseas all-rounders with that flexibility rarely go unsold, even after a quiet season, though his overseas slot means teams must weigh him against other foreign options.
Hardik Pandya is the special case, at 95% if he enters the auction. That condition matters more than the number. Reports, including a Telegraph report and Ashwin’s assessment that his chances of staying at Mumbai Indians are very low, suggest he could be traded or released, and an ABP report lists him among 12 players MI could consider releasing. But if he is retained or traded before the auction, he never reaches the hammer at all. The 95% reflects a simple truth: if a proven Indian captain and all-rounder of his calibre reaches an IPL auction, franchises will bid. The real uncertainty is whether he gets there.
Yash Dayal, named among three RCB players who could be released, sits at 60%. The left-arm fast bowler missed IPL 2026, and his percentage reflects fitness questions more than ability. A fit Indian left-armer is always valuable, but teams will want medical clarity before bidding.
Read also: Tomorrow IPL Match: Next Match Date, Schedule & Preview 2027
What Could Change Every Percentage
The retention deadline of 15 November 2026 is the single biggest variable. Once the lists are public, every percentage in this guide gets replaced by fact: retained players go to 100%, released players get a new number based on auction demand alone. Trades before the deadline, such as the reported moves involving Pant, Kuldeep Yadav, Natarajan and Ansari, will also reshape which slots teams need to fill.
Injuries, domestic form in the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy, and the final auction purse announcements can all move numbers in either direction. A strong domestic season can lift a young player ten points; a late injury can remove a player from the pool entirely. This guide will be worth revisiting the moment the retention lists drop.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are these percentages official?
No. They are editorial estimates based on auction history, franchise behaviour, reported release news and team needs. No franchise has announced its retention list, and the official lists arrive on 15 November 2026.
Which player is safest for IPL 2027?
Ravi Bishnoi at 93%, followed by Venkatesh Iyer at 92%. Both are proven capped Indian players in scarce roles, which makes them near-certain to hold an IPL contract next season.
Who is most at risk?
Among established names, Shahrukh Khan at 55%, because his finisher role and 2026 returns have put his place under question. Among the 2026 uncapped buys, Salil Arora and Naman Tiwari at 58% face the toughest mini-auction arithmetic.
What is the IPL 2027 auction date?
The mini-auction is reported for 16 December 2026 in Goa, with retention lists due on 15 November 2026. The schedule page on this site will update with confirmed details as soon as the BCCI announces them.
Where can I see the 2026 prices these chances are based on?
The full IPL 2026 auction price list for Indian players, including the record Rs 14.20 crore deals, is covered in the IPL 2026 auction article on this site.
Conclusion
The headline of this guide is reassuring for fans of the 2026 auction’s big Indian buys: the most expensive names are also the safest. Bishnoi, Venkatesh, Veer and Kartik all sit above 85%, because proven quality and record investments both protect a player. The real drama of the 2027 mini-auction will be at the margins, where young players like Mangesh Yadav and the reported release candidates like Shahrukh Khan wait to learn whether their franchises still believe in them. When the retention lists arrive on 15 November, these percentages turn into facts, and the auction story truly begins.
